A Hint of Better Times Ahead

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Let’s Order A Drink!

What’s astonishing about this data is how strong job creation was during a February cold snap that forced people to stay inside and a devastating storm which plunged Texas into the dark.

379,000 more workers found work in February, quite a surprise from the 225,000 expected.

Hint: it’s rising interest rates

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Let me just finish this text Mom!

Let’s get to the elephant in the room for most investors: volatility.

To begin, let’s talk about where we’ve been.

But I’m Still An Apocaloptimist

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My apologies: There is no returning to a pre-pandemic economic “normal”

We have seen the best our technology can produce when Moderna and Pfizer announced their vaccines at the end of December. The speed and efficacy are breathtaking and miraculous. As of this week, the US has given out over 57 million doses and globally it’s 186 million. At this rate, the Biden administration is easily meeting their goal of 100 million doses in 100 days as the nation is immunizing 1.69 million per day according to Bloomberg’s Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker. …

Why Elon Musk is Like a Greek God

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Let’s state this right at the start: the goal of the Biden administration, Congress and the Fed is to make the economy white hot.

Not trend growth, not strong growth, but 8–10% GDP growth.

Let that sink in for a minute.

The US economy will recoup the lost economic growth from 2020 in 2021. Remember in June of last year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated it would take 10 years to recoup this lost economic output or output gap. They are everything we’ve come to expect from a government economic research group.

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Top 5 Driving the Economy and Markets Right Now

#1 AOC, Redditt and GameStop. It’s hard not to smile when I see what’s going on with GameStop and Redditt as the once less-powerful retail investor took on bigger hedge funds and won. Turns out, they do know about options and what happens when the underlying price approaches the strike price. It makes the shorts have to buy to delta hedge, driving the price up and creating a short squeeze for the ages and crushed a few hedge funds along the way. It reminds me of the axiom I followed when…

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The #CapitolRiots of last week will transcend our time and will likely be referred to as the “Electoral Rebellion of 2021.” Think Whiskey Rebellion, where President Washington had to send troops into a state to quell a revolt.

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1. Vaccine Hesitancy

2. Virus Mutation

3. Cyber War

4. Protracted Congressional Fighting

5. Credit Crunch

The combination of 1 & 2 will be tragic. But if accompanied by 3,4 or 5, then the optimism for the economy and the enthusiasm for stocks by investors will both shift down significantly.

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Prepared on Day One?

With the world and US trying to cope with COVID-19, you probably haven’t thought much about what’s going to happen in the first 100 days of the Biden administration. The good news is we have and will be sending out our research on what to expect. Our mantra is: prepare now or get left behind. Our job is to prepare you for what we see coming to drive your success.

Today, we’re covering Biden’s top 5 priorities for the US economy. The size and impact of these policies will shift significantly should Democrats win both Georgia senate races. …

Over the last few weeks, president-elect Joe Biden has been making announcements on his key economic team. Let’s run down the list:

Special Envoy for Climate: John Kerry

US Treasury: Janet Yellen

US Treasury deputy: Wally Adeyemo

CEA chair: Cecilia Rouse

CEA council: Jared Bernstein

CEA council: Heather Boushey

NEC: Brian Deese

OMB: Neera Tanden

Why does Kerry head this list? Unless you haven’t be paying attention or haven’t read our research on Biden over the last 12 months, Kerry represents the direction of energy and environmental policy for the new administration. …

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Source Committee for a Responsible Budget

Less than 18 days from the election, the markets appear to be on pins and needles over two outcomes. First, another round of stimulus from Congress. Second, a “Blue Wave” with a Biden victory, a Democratic Senate takeover and the elimination of the 60 vote filibuster rule. Both outcomes appear to make investors and traders a bit nervous at the moment. They shouldn’t be.

On the stimulus package, there continues to be dialogue between the White House representative Treasury Sec. Mnuchin and Democrat Speaker of the House Pelosi. The House bill is lower from its original higher starting point and…

Andrew Busch

Andrew B. Busch is the former 1st Chief Market Intelligence Officer for the US government.

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